Sunday, November 11, 2007

Modeling the Spread of Diseases

What is most difficult about this section are all the variables needed to follow the S-I-R model for diseases. S are those susceptible, I those infected, R those recovered/removed. Than there is a,that measures how infectious the disease is and b, is a constant that represents the rate that infected people are removed from the infected population. This gets confusing! but what does make sense is that the threshold population would be equal b/a. If S is greater than the threshold than there is an epidemic, if S is less there is no epidemic.

What is important from the S-I-R model is than it works for more than hypothetical situations. There have been historical incidents of infections diseases and it is important to know the likelyhood of if a population of people will be infected in order to control outbreaks and for public safety.

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